CECIMO examined the challenges the sector will face in 2026 and discussed future risks and opportunities, in a context still characterized by political and economic uncertainty.
Economic situation and prospects
In 2025, the European machine tool sector continued to face a challenging economic environment, with weak demand and increased global competition putting pressure on CECIMO member companies. European machine tool production is estimated to have decreased by approximately 6.6% compared to 2024, reaching €23.5 billion, demonstrating that the slowdown has yet to ease.
This trend is also impacting Europe's position in the global market. In 2025, Europe's share of global machine tool production fell to approximately 30.8%, almost 2 percentage points less than the previous year. This trend is particularly worrying when compared to 2023, when Europe accounted for 33.4% of global production. This means that Europe has lost almost 3 percentage points of global production share in just two years, indicating a gradual erosion of its "industrial position."
Furthermore, the European machine tool market showed clear signs of weakening when considering consumption levels, which decreased by 3.7% compared to 2024, reflecting lower demand across European countries. Trade flows also declined: exports by European machine tool manufacturers decreased by 8.8%, while imports fell by 4.2%. The main export destinations for European machine tool manufacturers (excluding Europe) are the United States, China, and India. At the same time, when looking at European machine tool import flows, Japan, China, and South Korea continue to be the most significant suppliers.
Overall, these developments confirm that the sector has been operating in a challenging economic environment, impacted by slowing investment, persistent uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and weakening momentum in both European and global markets. Taken together, these factors have reduced demand for machine tools and negatively impacted the operating conditions of CECIMO members.
A similar picture emerges when looking at the order levels of the CECIMO8* index. Domestic orders decreased by approximately 1.7% in 2025 compared to 2024, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. By contrast, foreign orders increased by 1.2% over the same period, marking the first year of growth after two consecutive years of decline.
CECIMO's projections for 2026 indicate a modest improvement after two consecutive years of declining production and consumption in the European machine tool sector. Consumption and production levels are expected to increase in European countries, suggesting a possible stabilization. CECIMO's estimates for orders indicate an improvement in overall order volumes in the CECIMO8 index countries in 2026. However, this outlook remains fragile and exposed to external shocks and general market conditions and should therefore be interpreted as a transition phase rather than a full recovery.
The sector will continue to operate in a highly uncertain environment, characterized by geopolitical tensions and conflicts, trade risks, potential tariff measures, energy market volatility, and weak investment dynamics in major European economies. Since European machine tool manufacturers remain highly exposed to international trade and industrial investment cycles, any deterioration in these conditions could limit the expected recovery and potential future recoveries.
At the same time, CECIMO sees potential support from positive spillover effects related to public investment and strategic sectors such as defense, aerospace, electrification, artificial intelligence technologies, and advanced engineering. These sectors could help support demand for advanced and high-precision manufacturing solutions, but their impact will depend on timely implementation and avoiding further delays.
A stable trade environment, increased industrial investment, and effective policy measures could mark the beginning of a gradual recovery for the European machine tool sector. Without these conditions, Europe risks further weakening its position in machine tool technologies, while global competitors continue to strengthen their industrial capabilities.
"The current situation confirms that Europe cannot take its industrial leadership for granted. European machine tool manufacturers continue to operate in a challenging environment, characterized by declining demand, persistent global uncertainty, and growing competitive pressure. While some opportunities may emerge in strategic sectors, Europe needs a stable policy framework, increased industrial investment, and faster implementation of measures to support advanced manufacturing," commented François Duval, President of CECIMO.
Ucimu: orders index for the second quarter of 2026 still down (-25.8%); foreign orders (-15.3%); dom
Riccardo Rosa, president of UCIMU: "We'll have to wait until the next few months to see the full effects of the hyper-depreciation, but we're very confident this measure will last until September 2028." In the second quarter of 2026, the machine tool orders index compiled by the UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE Study & Business Culture Centre recorded a decline of -25.8% compared to the April-June 2025 period . In absolute value, the index stood at 47.8 (base 100 in 2021). The result expresses the difficulties that Italian machine tool manufacturers have encountered both on the domestic and foreign markets. In particular, orders collected from abroad decreased by -15.3% compared to the second quarter of 2025, for an absolute value of 63.2. Order intake in Italy also declined , falling 38.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The absolute value of the index stood at 33.1. Riccardo Rosa, president of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, stated: “The uncertainty of the geopolitical context—shaken by wars, the Hormuz crisis, and the decidedly worrying attitude of the President of the United States toward international politics—has profoundly undermined the already precarious balance in which the industry found itself operating.” "The decline in international deliveries, given the current situation, is understandable, and we expected it. Business has slowed, but, as is our custom, we've tried to focus our offerings on those areas less directly affected by conflicts and critical issues, diversifying our product offerings wherever possible." "It is certain ," continued President Riccardo Rosa , " that the investment figures and values once ensured by the automotive industry cannot be replaced by the demand expressed by other sectors, however dynamic, such as defense, aerospace, and energy. For this reason, once again, we ask our representatives in Europe to reconsider their decision and adopt the principle of technological neutrality when defining automotive development plans. This approach would allow the industry, and its entire supply chain, to properly manage the ongoing transition, not only respecting the environment but also safeguarding, where possible, employment." Domestically, businesses awaited clarifications on the hyper-depreciation program to confirm their purchasing intentions. Since June 12th, the day all the operational steps were completed, the hyper-depreciation program has been bearing fruit. We immediately noticed a change in attitude among Italian users: orders are starting to arrive. "We'll have to wait a few more months, however, for the effect to be fully reflected in our data, but we're definitely confident. This is also because, in the meantime, we have data from the Ministry of Business and Made in Italy, which, as of July 9th, reported the submission of 7,000 communications on the GSE platform, worth €2.5 billion." MIMIT deserves great credit for having established a multi-year term for this incentive. Its effectiveness until September 2028 should ensure thoughtful planning of investments in new machine tools and production technologies by Italian customers, also allowing us manufacturers to plan our production activities over the medium term. "The hope ," concluded Riccardo Rosa , " is to soon see the Italian market return to the levels it experienced in 2021-2022, when it was worth over €6 billion. This is also because our manufacturing industry needs to innovate to remain competitive in an international context where digital and AI are completely reshaping the rules of the game."
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